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“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
In 2011, you spoke at the Mindshift conference supported by Jeffrey Epstein. At that point, he had already been convicted of soliciting prostitution from a minor. Why did you agree to speak?You’ve launched your campaign in Minnesota, where George Floyd was killed by a police officer. How do you feel about the civil uprising against police brutality?
I had never heard of Jeffrey Epstein. His name was not on the website. I was asked to speak at a conference alongside Nobel Prize winners. It was not a cryptocurrency conference, it was filled with Nobel Prize winners. I was asked to speak alongside Nobel Prize winners on the future of money. I speak at conferences historically, two to three times a week. I was like, “Nobel Prize winners? Sounds great. I’ll happily talk about the future of money with them.” I had no idea who Jeffrey Epstein was. His name was not listed anywhere on the website. Had I known what I know now? I clearly would have never spoken there. But I spoke at a conference that he cosponsored.
What’s your connection to the Clinton Global Initiative? Did you hear about it through Jeffrey Epstein?
I joined the Clinton Global Initiative as a philanthropist in 2006 and was a member for one year. My involvement with the Initiative had no connection to Jeffrey Epstein whatsoever.
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day
investing comments / day
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
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- Century Pacific [CNPF 16.20 ▲1.50%] signs $50m contract with Linaco Group, a Malaysia coconut producer… the multi-year deal will expand the cooperation between the two companies that started two years ago, where CNPF produces white-label coconut products for Linaco Group, which Linaco Group then re-sells under its own branding/packaging. This is sometimes known as “contract manufacturing”, “white-label”, or “OEM” (original equipment manufacturer), but it all means the same thing: Company A makes the product and sells it to Company B, and Company B then sells the product to the public under Company B’s branding and packaging.
- MB: CNPF is a recent entrant into the coconut business, but has done well for itself since doing so, supplying Vita Coco under a long-term contract, and branching out into several coconut product categories like desiccated coconut, virgin coconut oil, coconut flour, and coconut milk. CNPF appears to be the main competitor of Axelum Resources [AXLM 2.36 ▼0.84%], which recently revealed that it struggled to source coconuts during the ECQ lockdown and left many customer orders unfilled as a result of prioritizing “its most important customers”. CNPF did not make clear if it suffered from the same supply chain issues, with the underlying coconut market growing for both, it will be interesting to see how this emerging rivalry plays out.
- Vantage Equities [V 1.12 ▲10.89%] profit ▲118% y/y… Q2/20 profit of P418m, up 118% from Q2/19 profit of P191m. V is an investment holding company that invests directly in stocks, bonds, and other companies. V owns a payments and remittances subsidiary that noted a 70% decrease in net income. V attributes this drop first to “stiff competition” in the remittance space, and second to the COVID pandemic. The other side of V’s business, the management of assets like stocks, bonds, or other securities, V said that it was “light already on equities” when the mid-March crash hit, so they were not impacted by the sell-off except in their mutual fund holdings. V said that their fixed income portfolio gains offset the losses from the mutual fund side, and then “were able to ride out the volatility and are now booking gains from the fixed income portfolio.”
- MB: *Referring to COVID specifically, V says that it expects “assets under management to remain at these levels until there is a cure for COVID19 and we see a recovery in economic growth.” V is referring to the 6000-level of the PSE when they talk about “these levels”. Even more interestingly, V says that “with rising cases and a failure to contain the spread of the virus, there is a risk that asset prices may fall back to their lows.” V is referring to the 4500-to-5000 level when they talk about prices falling “back to their lows.” That’s something to keep an eye on. TL;DR: The market is sideways until we have a vaccine, unless virus spread continues unconstrained. Then we’ll re-test those scary lows. *
- MB (1): Ok ok ok... for any of my new subscribers who were not around to read my take on V's Q1 results, you missed out on the best paragraph of MDA text that I've ever read, wherein V summarized the absolute insanity that was the social and economic context for everything that happened in Q1. It's worth a re-read so for your reading pleasure I've included it below. I just wish they'd have continued the post-apocalyptic fanfic into Q2... "The start of 2020 was not auspicious at all as first, markets were put into turmoil when Trump killed an Iranian general in a drone strike. Oil spikes 5% and USD/PHP goes from 50.60 to 51.20. Next was the Taal Volcano eruption, closing down cities as far as NCR. All of this happened in January. Also we get the first reports of a killer virus in Wuhan. This eventually spreads from China to all over the world, eventually sending the globe into lockdown. As the coronavirus spreads, US Treasury yields start falling. From around 1.8%, the 10y UST hits a low of 0.318% before eventually settling around 0.50%. The 30y UST yield hits below 1%, the first time in recorded history. Equity markets fall 3%, the worst declines since the Great Depression. The Fed has to go into crisis management and swiftly announces it will do everything to support the economy. They slash interest rates by 1%, essentially driving rates down to zero. It also promises unlimited asset purchases, with a wide scope of bonds that it can purchase, including MUNI bonds and junk bonds. Here in the Philippines NCR and Luzon is put under lockdown, with business grinding to a halt. After closing for a few days, PSE reopens and is promptly down 20% to 4000 but eventually recovers some of its losses. As liquidity becomes scarce, fixed income markets are hit hard, with banks seen liquidating their holdings. From trading at 3.125%, the benchmark 10-64 was sold to as high as 5.575 before BSP calmed markets by announcing its own bond buyback program. BSP also promptly cuts 50bp in an unscheduled meeting, and cuts RRR by 200bp. The 10-64 and bonds across the curve start being bought, with the yield down to 4.7%."
- Rockwell Land [ROCK 1.55 ▲1.97%] profit ▼108% y/y… Q2/20 loss of P47m, down 108% from Q2/19 profit of P564m. Remind me if you’ve heard the one about the Manila-based real estate developer with hotel interests that had a bad time during the pandemic and lockdown. Anyway, ROCK is not particularly different from its peers in that it suffered downturns in its residential and commercial segments, but it is also worth noting that ROCK’s hotel segment was crushed by the virus and managed to turn in a P7m net loss for the quarter.
- MB: The company is not in any danger, as it just concluded a P1.68bn buy-back of its seven-year bonds under a buy-back program it started 6 weeks ago. Though it’s clear that ROCK’s NCR-heavy focus, and consumption-heavy focus (hotels, cinemas, malls) hurt the company in ways that other firms which were more geographically diversified and socio-economically diversified were not.
- ABS-CBN [ABS 7.25 ▼1.36%] unable to file Q1 and Q2 earnings reports on time… the ex-top broadcaster, owned by the Lopez Family and denied legislative renewal of its broadcast franchise by the… by Congress, disclosed yesterday that the non-renewal caused ABS’s auditor to request additional documents and extend the length of its audit. This, according to ABS, has put ABS in a position to miss the filing deadline for those quarters without incurring “unreasonable effort or expense”.
- MB: Despite being railroaded out of domestic broadcasting and clearly still trying to administratively come to grips with the implications of that, ABS appears to be pivoting hard to digital, and… having some success? ABS just passed the 10 million subscriber mark for its YouTube channel, which is still the most-subscribed domestic news channel. No investor should expect some kind of Christmas Miracle here, though, as this is not like some 80s movie where a quick montage and some fighting spirit will replace the gaping hole in ABS’s revenues with an upstart digital presence. Revenue growth here will take time… and it comes with certain risks, such as how GMA’s Youtube channel was hacked yesterday to display “SpaceX Live” as its channel title and a scam bitcoin giveaway as its top video.
At the very least, the events of the past month have put to rest the notion that bitcoin today can be a “haven.” How March 12 shook crypto markets, and how it didn’t The crash shook ... What’s next for Bitcoin's price. The 30-day moving average is around $11,200, but the current Bitcoin price is far below it, which indicates that Bitcoin bears are strong. Although we saw some support at around $10,000 price, technically it is waiting for the second dip. What we need to pay attention to is monetary policy and stimulus package reports, after all, the two-month bull run was ... Bitcoin has crashed. The decision what to do next comes back to the schism between believing it will be worth $100,000-plus a coin or $0 a coin. Bitcoin price crash: Cryptocurrency loses 10 per cent of its value bitcoin-price-crash-latest-2018.jpg. Bitcoin's lack of major market movement came crashing to an end late on 14 November ... Bitcoin Live: How to Watch the Next Price Run or Crash in Real-Time Watching the bitcoin price move can be exhilarating, or at times soul-crushing, depending on the market.
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